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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to rise on Monday from the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520. However, in the middle of the day, news broke that the new escalation of the trade war had been called off, prompting bulls to retreat slightly from the market. Still, they did not go far—the pound remains above the 1.3520 level. A minor decline in the pair is possible, but only a close below 1.3520 would suggest a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar toward the 1.3425 level.
The wave structure clearly indicates a bullish trend. The most recent upward wave broke the high of the previous one, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. It's difficult for bulls to count on further growth without new announcements from Donald Trump regarding the introduction or increase of tariffs—but such announcements did come at the end of last week. On Monday, it was reported that the tariff hike had been called off for now, but this didn't change the overall picture.
On Monday, the news background for the pound was not particularly strong, yet the cancellation of the June 1 tariff hike for the European Union affected trader sentiment. Dollar selling ceased, and traders are now waiting for new data. There will be few news releases today. The U.S. durable goods orders report could help bulls launch a new offensive, as a sharp drop is expected for April following a very strong result in March. Donald Trump continues to apply pressure on the EU and China, while the British pound remains the "silent bystander" and beneficiary of this situation. Another key report this week will be U.S. Q1 GDP. The previous reading was very weak, and the second estimate could be even worse. At the moment, I see two important reports in the coming days that could support the bulls and trigger a renewed decline in the dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. Therefore, the upward movement may continue toward the next retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicators today. The bullish trend remains unquestioned and may persist until there is more clarity about the new global trade environment. As for Trump's dollar, no one seems to care—and no one is trying to save the American currency.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category changed very little over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 1,396, while short positions rose by 1,827. Bears have long lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 24,000 in favor of the bulls: 88,000 vs. 64,000.
In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but recent developments are shifting the market's long-term direction. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has grown from 65,000 to 88,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 64,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has eroded, and the COT reports show that traders have little appetite to buy the dollar. So regardless of the broader news flow, the dollar continues to decline in response to Trump's actions.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:
Tuesday's economic calendar includes only one major event. News background will influence trader sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Fibonacci level grids are based on 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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