09.06.202500:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: British Pound: Weekly Preview

In the United Kingdom, the news background for the upcoming week will be much more interesting, although I do not believe it will significantly impact market sentiment. The pound continues to enjoy demand because the U.S. dollar is currently in no demand. Consequently, the worse and more absurd the news coming out of the United States, the stronger the pound and many other currencies will grow against the dollar.

Nevertheless, I would like to emphasize the relatively important reports regarding British unemployment, wages, GDP, and industrial production. Personally, I am most interested in the GDP and unemployment reports. According to some forecasts, unemployment could rise to 4.6% in April, undoubtedly bad for the British economy and the pound. However, I will reiterate that the negative news background from Britain does not have much influence on the pound's exchange rate because the negative background from the U.S. is much stronger and more important.

As with the Eurozone and the euro, the market has long been accustomed to the fact that the British economy is not performing impressively. It has shown consistently weak growth rates, so no one has expected high figures from the economic indicators for quite a long time. In 2025, they have virtually ceased to matter to market participants because of Donald Trump, who makes decisions and statements every week that reinforce the market's belief in the necessity of getting rid of the U.S. dollar as quickly as possible.

In my opinion, the upward segment of the trend is not yet complete, so we should anticipate a new rise in the instrument on Monday or any other day of the week. I see no signs of de-escalation of the Global Trade War and, therefore, no reason to buy the U.S. dollar.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will entirely depend on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The formation of wave 3 of the upward trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I am considering buying positions with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci's retracement and is even higher. It should be noted that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that do not correspond to any wave structure or type of technical analysis, but for now, the working scenario and structure remain intact. The formation of an upward wave 3 continues with the nearest target at 1.3708, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci of the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I am still considering buying positions, as the market has yet to show a desire to reverse the trend.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring changes.
2. If there is a lack of confidence in the market, it is better to refrain from entering.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget to set Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.