16.06.202512:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is currently holding on to its intraday losses. Overall positive sentiment in the stock markets is undermining demand for bullion. However, a combination of factors is preventing bears from taking aggressive positions, helping the metal stay above the key psychological level of $3400.

The continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keeps pressuring market optimism, heightening concerns about global instability. At the same time, the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will further reduce borrowing costs in 2025 is keeping the U.S. dollar from strengthening. This, in turn, is helping to limit gold's downside.

From a technical standpoint, Friday's breakout above the round $3400 level and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor XAU/USD bulls. Therefore, any further corrective pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity, with downside likely to remain limited around the $3400 level. However, a drop below this level would pave the way for deeper losses toward the $3370 level. A decisive break below this zone would invalidate the constructive outlook, shifting the short-term bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, momentum beyond the Asian session high in the $3455–3453 level would allow the precious metal to target a retest of the all-time high at the psychological $3500 level, reached in April. A decisive move beyond that level could act as a new trigger for the bulls, paving the way for an extension of the recently well-established uptrend.