18.06.202500:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The UK–US Deal Has Been Reached, But Tariffs Remain

Trump's first deal signed. As expected, the UK was the lucky party to sign Donald Trump's first trade deal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer can rightly be considered an outstanding leader—he managed to reach an agreement with Trump, something very few have achieved. There are many doubts about this deal and how beneficial it truly is for the UK. However, Starmer concluded that "a bad peace is better than a good quarrel" and therefore made concessions on many issues to his American counterpart. In return, Trump professed his love for the British nation.

According to the new agreement, tariffs on imported British cars will be reduced from 27.5% to 10%, with an annual quota of 100,000 units. Additionally, the trade agreement provides a simplified regime for agricultural and aerospace goods. At the same time, the steel tariffs imposed by Trump on all countries remain in place. Unofficially, the White House has agreed to lift import quotas on British steel, which will still be subject to a 25% tariff (it's worth noting that Trump doubled the tariffs on steel and aluminum a few weeks ago, but they are set to come into effect on July 9). However, neither party has made official statements regarding this matter yet.

After signing this initial agreement, many question whether this deal will serve as a launching pad for Trump's broader trade victory. Economists do not doubt that the agreement with London will be framed as a personal win for Trump and serve as an example to other nations whose negotiations are progressing more slowly and with greater difficulty. However, the deal with London is unlikely to carry much weight for the EU or China. These nations are focused on their own trade agreements, and their economies are significantly larger than Britain's, making them more capable of withstanding serious blows without major losses. Therefore, I still don't expect an "easy victory" for Trump in his standoff with the largest trading partners. As we can see, the market showed no euphoria over Trump's first deal. The GBP/USD rate on Tuesday barely moved. It remains unclear who should count this deal as a win or a loss.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend segment. The wave count still depends entirely on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 may extend as far as the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I consider buying with initial targets around 1.1708 (which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci), and potentially higher. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are observing a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets may still face a great deal of volatility and unexpected reversals that don't align with wave counts or technical analysis. Nevertheless, the active scenario remains relevant for now, and Trump continues to do everything possible to suppress demand for the U.S. dollar. The targets for bullish wave 3 are around 1.3708, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci of the assumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market has not yet shown a willingness to reverse the trend.

Core principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there's no confidence in market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. 100% certainty in market direction doesn't exist and never will. Always remember to use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.