26.06.202512:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are showing moderate gains for the second consecutive day, though they remain below the 3,350-dollar level.

Intraday demand for the Japanese yen persists alongside broad U.S. dollar weakness, contributing to the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Rising expectations that the Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates, amid signs of increasing inflation in the country, continue to support the Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are raising concerns about the future independence of the central bank, which in turn boosts the yen as a safe-haven currency. Additionally, the standoff between Trump and Powell, along with expectations of Fed rate cuts, is pushing the dollar toward levels not seen in over three years, putting further pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, a break below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, located around the 144.70–144.65 level, can be viewed as a key bearish signal. With oscillators on both hourly and daily charts showing negative momentum, prices have accelerated their move toward the psychological level of 144.00. A sustained drop below this level could open the way to the 143.70–143.65 range, followed by a potential test of levels below 143.00.

On the other hand, attempts to recover above the key psychological level of 145.00 are likely to face resistance near 145.75, with gains capped at 146.00. This level will act as a pivotal point: a breakout above it could shift the short-term bias in favor of the bulls, pushing the USD/JPY pair higher toward the 147.00 round figure. Further momentum may lead to a move toward the 147.45–147.50 level before another attempt to break above 148.00.