26.06.202519:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Analysis on June 26, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of a bullish impulsive wave structure. The wave layout is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, as the sole reason for the rally remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is falling across the entire market spectrum, resulting in similar dynamics across many instruments. Wave 2 of the upward trend has taken the form of a single-wave correction. Within the presumed wave 3, subwaves 1, 2, 3, 4, and presumably 5 have been completed. Thus, a corrective wave structure with a temporary decline in the instrument may be expected in the near future.

It is important to remember that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not just trade policy. Occasionally, the U.S. produces solid macroeconomic data, but the market remains preoccupied with the broader economic uncertainty, Trump's erratic decisions and statements, and the protectionist and adversarial tone of the White House. As a result, even positive data often fail to generate sustained demand for the dollar. So far, the dollar has struggled to convert good news into actual buying pressure.

The GBP/USD rate climbed another 60 basis points on Thursday. As previously mentioned, the market has virtually no other option but to sell the dollar almost daily. No positive news has come from the U.S. In recent weeks, headlines regarding the escalation of the Middle East conflict occasionally lent support to the dollar, but all it managed to do was temporarily halt its decline, which began back in January.

Today's disappointing U.S. GDP report could well trigger a new wave of selling pressure on the dollar—even if not immediately. Recall that on Monday, when markets were reacting to the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the apparent entry into a Middle East conflict, demand for the dollar didn't drop instantly either. In fact, the currency experienced a short-term rise. Regardless of the news backdrop, market participants occasionally take profits, which causes short-lived pullbacks. That's likely what we're seeing today—but tomorrow the pair may rise again.

The only significant negative indicator is the durable goods orders report. In May, orders increased by 16.4%. However, this should not be blown out of proportion. In March, orders rose 7.6%, and in April, they fell by 6.6%. Before March 2025, the indicator typically fluctuated within ±1.5%. In other words, this is not a sign of dramatically improved American prosperity or greater purchasing power. Rather, it suggests consumers are preparing for a storm and "dark times" ahead. That's why they're making large purchases now—because prices may be significantly higher later. From this perspective, the report is not fundamentally positive.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains intact. We are observing a bullish impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly reshape the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains valid. Trump continues to do everything in his power to suppress demand for the dollar. The target for the current wave 3 is around the 1.3708 level, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci extension of the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.