30.06.202519:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – June 30th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 144.17 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of this level followed shortly thereafter and coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone. This confirmed a valid sell entry for the dollar, though the pair did not experience a significant drop.

Today's economic calendar includes several events that could influence market dynamics, although no major shifts in sentiment are expected. Attention will be focused on the release of the Chicago PMI, which reflects business activity in the region. This indicator is crucial for analysts and traders, as it provides insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. Also in focus will be speeches by Raphael Bostic and Austan D. Goolsbee, members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Their comments on the current economic environment and potential changes in monetary policy may lead to notable adjustments in market expectations. In particular, markets will be closely watching their assessment of the latest U.S. inflation data, which were generally perceived as encouraging.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today after the price reaches 144.39 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 144.81 (thicker green line). At 144.81, I will exit long positions and consider reversing into short trades (expecting a 30–35 point pullback from this level). A strong rise today is only likely if the data is favorable.Important: Before entering long, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 144.07 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside and lead to a reversal. A rise toward 144.39 and 144.81 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 144.07 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline. The main target for sellers will be 143.57, where I'll exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point correction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if the data disappoints.Important: Before entering short, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today after two consecutive tests of the 144.39 level, provided the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 144.07 and 143.57 can then be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; further growth is unlikely above this level;
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; further decline is unlikely below this level;
• MACD Indicator – for entries, rely on overbought/oversold zones.

Important:Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making trade entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, your deposit can be wiped out very quickly, especially if you trade with large volumes and lack proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed approach for any intraday trader.