01.07.202505:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 1, 2025

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EUR/USD

On the weekly chart, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the price channel, around the 1.1822 mark, from which a reversal of the entire trend may occur.

A divergence with the Marlin oscillator is ready for immediate formation. If the price breaks above the channel line, it will most likely be a false breakout, invalidating the channel. Only a weekly candle close above the specified level, accompanied by the oscillator rising above the previous peak, would significantly complicate the technical picture for a trend reversal.

On the daily chart, a possible target in the event of a breakout above 1.1822 is the 1.1905 level — the resistance from July–August 2021. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator does not support the price's bullish momentum.

For now, the trend remains upward, but we are preparing for a possible shift. The Nonfarm Payrolls, Independence Day, and "Liberation Day" (new tariffs) are just around the corner. Donald Trump may have a surprise in store.

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