28.07.202511:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At the start of the new week during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair attempted to remain positive, but during the European session, prices fell below the 1.1750 level amid expectations of key U.S. macroeconomic data due this week and the important two-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday.

From a technical standpoint, on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair attempted to hold above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) but dropped lower toward the 50-period SMA. Nonetheless, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive for now.

However, before opening new long positions, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained move above today's intraday high around 1.1770. From there, the pair could break through the 1.1800 round level and continue its upward momentum toward the 1.1830 level or the highest level last seen in September 2021 and briefly revisited on July 1, 2025. A firm move above the 1.1900 level would create conditions for further upward movement.

On the other hand, the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, positioned at the 1.1700 round level, is attempting to prevent an immediate decline. Further weakness could be viewed as a buying opportunity near the 1.1654–1.1650 level, where the 200-period SMA is located, which may help limit losses near the 1.1600 round level. A clear break below this level would leave spot prices vulnerable to a retest of the July low around 1.1560–1.1555. Additional selling could expose the psychological level of 1.1500 before the pair extends its decline further.