30.07.202512:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

From a technical perspective on the 4-hour chart, the recent break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has been viewed as a key bearish signal. Additionally, the oscillators on the same chart are in negative territory, suggesting that any subsequent upward movement should be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain limited. However, the minor rebound from the nearly three-week low around the $3300 level, reached on Monday, calls for caution among sellers. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break below the $3300 level before opening short positions targeting the $3280 support level.

On the other hand, the $3347 level—currently where the 100-period SMA is located on the 4-hour chart—acts as immediate resistance. A move above this level could push the precious metal toward the 50-day SMA in the $3362 level. Further strengthening above this zone could trigger a short-covering rally, allowing XAU/USD to reclaim the round $3400 level. Momentum would then face strong resistance near the $3435 level.

However, continued buying beyond that point would nullify the short-term bearish outlook and pave the way for a move toward breaking the all-time high near the psychological $3500 level, reached in April.