13.03.201404:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental analysis of USD/JPY for March 13, 2014

USD/JPY fell during the session on Wednesday, testing the 50.0 Fib level. This level, of course, has been an intraday high made on March 05, 2014, so it makes sense that it would be supportive now. It represents a fairly significant breakout, and we believe that it opens the door to the 105+ levels. However, it makes sense that we could possibly go sideways in the meantime.

The market is also looking at the interest rate differential between the two currencies, as they should continue to favour the Americans. With that, we believe that this pair eventually goes higher, and that the 105 level will eventually be touched. We recognize that there is a lot of noise between here and there, so we could get pullbacks from time to time. Bank of Japan will continue to expand its monetary policy, sending the value of the Yen down. The BOJ targets a 270 trillion yen monetary base in fiscal 2014. The BOJ affirmed its plans to double monetary base from 60-70 trillion yen annually to increase the base. A breakdown below 102.50 (support) will indicate that the uptrend from 101.20 is completed, then the following downward movement could bring price to the 98.00 level.

S1 101.91 R1 102.91

S2 100.0 R2 103.76

S3 98.0 R3 105.44