30.10.202511:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The ECB Will Not Change Its Forecasts Until the End of the Year

The European Central Bank is expected, for the third consecutive meeting this year, to keep interest rates unchanged today after receiving a new set of data that should provide more clarity on the damage caused by trade tensions and the fiscal crisis in France.

The decision will be accompanied by close scrutiny of President Christine Lagarde's statements, which markets will analyze carefully for hints about the future direction of policy. Inflation in the eurozone remains slightly above the ECB's 2% target, while signs of slowing economic growth are intensifying, creating a dilemma for policymakers. In addition, political uncertainty in France following the recent elections is also weighing on investment and consumer spending. Given these headwinds, the ECB is likely to proceed cautiously with any policy changes.

Many economists believe the ECB will wait for additional information on the economic outlook and inflation trajectory before making further decisions. This is particularly relevant for wages and corporate profitability, which, amid an economic slowdown, may not meet expectations. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for December, by which time more economic data should be available.

According to all surveyed analysts, the deposit rate will remain at 2% on Thursday. Economists expect borrowing costs to stay at this level until 2027, unless the updated December forecast shows a significant shortfall in inflation relative to projections.

It is worth noting that in recent weeks, officials have frequently echoed President Christine Lagarde, describing monetary policy as being "at an appropriate level."

However, certain risks remain. While economic growth is expected to pick up next year, the U.S.-China trade disputes could spill over into Europe. Political uncertainty in France—where Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is struggling with a credit rating downgrade—and a similar situation in Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party is trailing the far right in polls, pose additional threats to the region's stable economic growth.

Reports from Europe's leading economies for the third quarter, which will be released today, will show how strongly these factors have already affected economic performance. However, even if the data worsens, a further ECB rate cut in the coming months is considered unlikely.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

At present, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1645 level. Only this will allow for a test of 1.1668. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1696, though doing so without support from large market participants will be quite difficult. The most distant upward target remains 1.1725. If the trading instrument declines toward 1.1621, I expect significant buying activity from major players. If none appears, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1602 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1580.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3240. Only this will allow for a move toward 1.3270, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The most distant target lies around 1.3310. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3190. Should they succeed, a breakout below this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3170 low, with the potential to extend to 1.3140.