09.04.201403:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD for April 09, 2014

UK manufacturing sector strengthened for a third consecutive month in February, boosting hopes that the economy is re-balancing. Official statistics showed output grew by 1%, up from 0.3% in January and 0.4% last December. The output was 3.8% up in the same month a year earlier and is at its highest level in two years. Great Britain got a double boost as its recovery from recession gathered momentum and the International Monetary Fund raised the country's growth forecasts more than for any other major economy. The IMF estimated the UK would grow by 2.9% in 2014, up from its 2.5% estimate in January. For the next year, it is a 2.5% lift in GDP, up from its previous estimate of 2.2%.The dominant contribution to the 1.7% expansion of GDP came from the services sector.

Technical view-

GBP/USD gave a breakout from the falling wedge and it closed above the breakout levels, which was a bull view. Todays's trading pattern will give a clue whether it is going to be in an extremely bullish factor or set for a small correction. For positional traders - on the down side, the level of 1.6718 (a March 13 high) is the first major support. After a day close below the 1.6718 level, the pair will set for a correction up to 1.6594 levels. For the medium term, the level of 1.6554 (an April 4 low) is the sl level. The trend changing level is at 1.6465 (a March 24 low).

On the upside, targets come at 1.6786, 1.6823, and 1.695 levels. This view is validated until the pair closes above the 1.6718 levels. If the pair trades above the 1.6823 levels, the extremely bullish view will come into existence.

Intraday- sell on rallies- 2 or 3 days perspective

In the H4 chart, the pair is in extremely overbought conditions. It is not fair to enter fresh longs at this levels. Those who want to enter shorts, it is the best time. Selling on rallies is the best strategy for 2-3 days trading perspective with sl 1.6786 on a closing basis. On the downside, the support levels exist at 1.6735 and 1.6718. In case of a candle close below the 1.6718 level, we can witness the selling pressure to 1.666. In case of a break below this, the selling pressure will change to panic mode to 1.6653, 1.6631, and 1.66 levels.