16.04.201415:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2014

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range. USD/JPY is buoyed by buying of yen crosses amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 3.1% to 15.61) on positive cue from Wall Street overnight (S&P closed up 0.68% after volatile session) despite the escalating conflict in Ukraine, broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 79.79 versus 79.75 early Tuesday) on higher-than-expected 0.2% rise in U.S. March CPI (versus +0.1% forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in Empire State manufacturing index to 1.29 in April from 5.61 in March (versus forecast for rise to 8.0), weaker-than-expected rise in NAHB housing market index to 47 in April from 46 in March(versus 50 forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan exporter sales, diminished expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.95.

Resistance levels:
102.65
103
103.25

Support levels:
101.65
101.45
101.20