24.11.201112:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Noughs and Crosses analysis for November 24, 2011

Gold price has held yesterday above $1,275 critical support. The decline from $1,331 is not a perfect impulsive move and combined with the fact that price is still above $1,275; we continue to prefer the scenario that this decline is only wave B and we should soon see an upward wave C towards $1,340-50.

Gold price is challenging the downward sloping blue trend line at $1,285. If broken upwards, we should expect a move towards $1,300-$1,305. That resistance is our intermediate target. If that level is also broken upwards, we will become more confident of an upward move towards $1,340. The Ichimoku cloud is still above current price and trend remains down. Any upward bounce is counter trend as we believe the longer-term trend is down.

In the daily chart above I show my preferred wave count and how I expect Gold price to move in the short term. My longer-term view is bearish with the 1st target at $1,200 and the 2nd target at $1,100. An hourly close below $1,275 will cancel my upside expectations. If $1,275 support fails, I prefer going immediately short with $1,250 as a short-term target.