25.04.201417:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 25, 2014

Long-term review

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Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 0.38% to 13.32 overnight) on flare-up in tensions between Ukraine and Russia. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports sales, weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.74 versus 79.86 early Thursday) as bigger-than-expected 24,000 increase in the U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 19 to 329,000 (versus 315,000 forecast) and drop in Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index to 7 in April from 10 in March offset stronger-than-expected 2.6% increase in the U.S. March durable goods orders (versus +2.0% forecast). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.85. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.65. The pivot point stands at 102.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.70 and the second target at 102.95.

Resistance levels:
102.70
102.95
103.20

Support levels:
101.85
101.65
101.40

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