28.04.201406:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weekly analysis of JPY/USD for April 28-May 02, 2014

The BOJ meets on Wednesday and, while it stands ready to provide more stimulus; it is not yet convinced this will be necessary. The opinion surveys find more than a 2/3 majority expect more action before the end of July. The March retail sales report and industrial output figures are likely to be inflated by efforts to front-run the sales tax hike.

Weekly forecast-

For the longer term view, USD/JPY has been in an up trend with a bullish flag pattern. Currently the pair is trading in a zig zag pattern for the last 4 weeks taking support at 101.3 levels. As of now, this week's first trading session, the pair opened in a bearish note. The pair is trading at the lower levels of the bullish flag patter in the weekly charts. It has been consolidating for the last 4 weeks at the lower levels. In the weekly chart, the RSI is also witnessing the consolidation pattern. On the downside, the pair has strong support at 101.97, below this, 101.33 and 100.60 (50-week sma). Once it breaks below the 50SMA, we expect a steep fall up to 98 levels immediately. On the upside, 102.72 is the initial resistance level, above this it will fly up to 103.4 and 104.1 levels.