15.10.201418:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 15, 2014

Long-term review

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Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in higher range after hitting one-month low 106.17 today. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.197% versus 2.305% late Friday) as investors pushed back expectations of the first Federal Reserve's rate increase in 2015 after Fed officials signaled a cautious approach to raising interest rates amid deteriorating global growth outlook, weak oil prices (tumbled 4.55% to settle at $81.84/bbl overnight for biggest one-day decline since November 2012) after the International Energy Agency slashed its oil demand growth forecast for this year by more than a fifth to just 700,000 barrels a day, its weakest in five years. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japan exporter sales and drop in U.S. NFIB Index of Small-Business Optimism to 95.3 in September from 96.1 in August. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; broadly stronger USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 85.88 versus 85.22 early Tuesday) on relatively better U.S. economic performance versus that of other major economies.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 105.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 105.20. The pivot point stands at 107. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.55 and the second target at 107.85.

Resistance levels:
107.55
107.85
108.25

Support levels:
105.70
105.20
104.85

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