04.11.201409:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Wave analysis for November 4, 2014

Long-term review

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Gold price is moving sideways as part of wave 4 of the decline from $1,255. A new lower low is expected towards $1,135 for the short-term. My longer-term view remains bearish with $1,050 as a target but first we could see a bounce towards $1,180-$1,200.

Gold price as shown in the 30-minute chart above is most probably in its 4th wave. The alternation rule by Elliott wave theory suggests that wave 4 should have a different form of correction relative to wave 2. Where wave 2 was steeper and retraced 38% of the decline of wave 1, wave 4 is moving sideways as a triangle pattern. Wave 5 is expected to complete near $1,135.

Gold price has not managed to come close even to the 23.8% retracement. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and all ichimoku indicators remain bearish. The trend remains strongly bearish with my longer-term target of $1,050 still unchanged. Breaking below $1,160 will give us another sell signal with $1,173 stop and $1,140-$1,130 target.

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