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EUR/USD
The pair started this week on a bearish note. Yesterday, the euro lost 100 pips against the US dollar. The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 106.8 points in February from 106.7 points last month. The Ifo data fell short of expectations. The German economy is proving robust in the context of geopolitical uncertainty. Besides, the US existing home sales data cooled off. Existing home sales declined in January to their lowest rate in nine months, but the pace was higher for the fourth straight month than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Today it's a big day for the pair. The ECB meeting, ECB president Draghi speech, and US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen speeches are due. The macroeconomic data on German Final GDP, Final CPI, and core CPI data will be released. Besides, US consumer confidence index is due.
After six-day of consolidation near 20Dsma, finally the pair closed below 20Dsma again. On the h4-chart, the prices are closed and trading below hourly moving averages. Technically the pair looks very weak. In March, the ECB will starts its 1.14 trillion euro bond buying program. The prices have a strong support base between 1.1270 and 1.1260. Trading is framed between 1.1450 and 1.1260. In case, the pair closes below 1.1260, the new lower target exists at 1.0996. The intraday support is found between 1.1280 and 1.1260. The panic will be triggered below 1.1260 with the targets at 1.1220 and 1.1190. Until a h4 candle closes above 1.1450, use every rise to sell. The intraday resistance is set at 1.1360 and 1.1370. We can expect strong momentum, in case the pair closes above 1.1535, but the chances are remote.
GBP/USD
UK sales growth tumbles in February. It was the lowest reading since November 2013. Besides, the US existing housing data came below expectations. The Pound moved higher against the USD at the previous session. Ahead of Yellen's speech, the cable muted at 1.5457 today at the early Asian session. The UK's inflation report hearing is scheduled for today. The cable has been facing strong resistance at 1.5480 the 61.8 fib level. The weekly resistance is at 1.5535 20Wsma.
The weekly support is seen between 1.5310 and 1.5260. Bulls can challenge 1.5565, if the price breaches above 1.5490. In case a h4 candle closes above 1.5440, again bulls can challenge towards the new weekly high. The intraday support is found between 1.5440 and 1.5400. The panic will be triggered below 1.5400 with downside targets at 1.5280 and 1.5200. We recommend selling below 1.5400 with the targets at 1.5340, 1.5310, and 1.5280. The prices are consolidating in a tight range between 1.5440 and 1.5475. Bulls can strike towards 1.5535, 1.5550, and 1.5564, in case the level 1.5480 is taken off.
Buying above 1.5480.
Selling below 1.5400.
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