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EUR/USD
The French industrial production jumped in January. Over the last three months, output rose slightly in the manufacturing sector (+0.2% q-o-q), as well as in the industry as a whole (+0.2%, q-o-q). Manufacturing output of the last three months fell compared to the same months of the previous year (–0.7% y-o-y). It declined more markedly in overall industrial output (–0.9% y-o-y). But Italy's industrial production decreased. In January 2015, the industrial production index seasonally adjusted decreased by 0.7% compared to December. The percentage change of the last three months on average was +0.1% compared to the previous three months. It was a mixed outcome from the eurozone. Among the eurozone economies, France is showing minor signs of recovery. France is the second biggest economy in the eurozone.
Today, traders are awaiting BoE Governor Carney speech and French nonfarm payroll data. We do not expect changes in Q4.
Technical view. The pair broke below August 2008 lows, aiming for 1.0560 and 1.0530 in the near term. Eventually, it can go below 1.0000. The prices are closed and trading far below hourly moving averages. Until prices close below 1.0.960, use every rise to sell this week. The weekly resistance is found between 1.0780 and 1.0960. Forget buying, until the price closes below 1.0960 on a positional basis. The near-term target seems at 1.0560. The longer-term target seems at 0.9000 in case prices close below 1.0760 on a monthly basis. The downtrend remains strong. We are recommending lower targets initially at sub 1.1000 and later 0.9000. At yesterday's session, we recommended fresh intraday selling below 1.0820 with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The pair made a low at 1.0660.
Resistance: 1.0740, 1.0780, 1.0825.
Support: 1.0680, 1.0600, 1.0560.
Trade: use a rise to sell.
Intraday, selling below 1.0680 with targets at 1.0600 and 1.0575.
EUR/JPY
Mixed economic data punched the euro against JPY. After Japan's GDP release, the pair broke the previous swing low. The cross is testing its fate at 129.00 or 200Mema. Technically, the cross broke below the 200Wsma, 100Msma, and 200Msma. In case, the price closes below 129.00, bears can challenge 128.00 and 125.00 in the near and short term. We still recommend selling at 132.35 with targets at 131.20, 130.90, 129.50, and even 129.00. Yesterday, the cross made a low at 129.22. The lowest lows and lower highs have been developing on the h4 chart, suggesting more room for a downside is yet to come. The intraday resistance is set between 130.70 and 130.80. Steep fall will be triggered below 129.00 with targets at 128.00, 125.00, and even 122.50.
Key levels to watch: 129.00 monthly. The pair broke and closed below the weekly key support level, now focus is shifted to the monthly support at 129.00.
If prices close below 129.60 on weekly basis, the last hope seems at 129.00.
Weekly support: 129.00.
Monthly support: 129.00.
Trade: fresh selling below 129.00 for safe trades.
Risky trades: buying with sl 129.00.
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