16.05.201214:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count for May 16, 2012

Long-term review

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
For the last two weeks the EUR/USD pair has been developing 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward movement. During the European session we could observe the ascending movement towards the 1.2865 level. Therefore during the New York session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching 1.2720 level (daily low). Today during the Asian session the price continue trading in a bearish mood reaching 1.2680 level.We can consider this move as end of the 3 wave (coloured pink). Presently we can observe 3 impulsive wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.3380-1.2993-1.3282) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2600 (161.8% of wave 1). The resistance point at 1.2750 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Crude Oil Inventories,FOMC Meeting Minutes that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.2625 (S2) 1.2681 (S1) 1.2716 (PP) 1.2772 (R1) 1.2828 (R2) 1.2863 (R3) 1.2919

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.2700 with Stop Loss at 1.2750 and Take Profit at 1.2600 are recommended.

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