25.05.201209:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 25, 2012

Long-term review

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AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Within this wave there are five subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 0.9934. The latter contrains subwaves A, and B (red in the chart), that is developing from 0.9689. Within wave B there are also waves of a still smaller degree (orange red in the chart), A and B, and subwave B is developing from 0.9813.

Now the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9934-0.9689, and expansions off 0.9689-0.9813-0.9716.

Resistances:

- 0.9840 = confluence area of .618 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 0.9917 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price resumes the downtrend the targets below will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0473-1.0110-1.0219, 1.0219-0.9795-0.9934, 0.9934-0.9689-0.9813.

Supports:

- 0.9672 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9662 = COP
- 0.9632 = XOP
- 0.9568 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

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