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11.05.201503:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 11, 2015

Long-term review

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The new week starts with a big event, the Eurogroup's meeting. The Finance Minister of Germany expected difficulties in reaching an agreement on Greece within today's Eurogroup's meeting. But the Greek government expects progress in negotiation with Greece lenders. After today's big event, major economic data fall on Wednesday. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q, French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts due. Wednesday is another big data for this pair. We expect the German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France are likely to be stagnant.

Technical view:The pair was unchanged over the previous week. The pair has been developing the technical bullish signs for 4 consecutive weeks. The divergence between the ECB and Fed favors the long-term bearish view for this pair. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma after 52 weeks. Last week, the pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance of 1.3997 and made a high at 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema& 100Dsma.On Friday's session, the pair rejected exactly at 100Dsma. Until the pair closes below 1.1300 100Dsma, bulls will be losing the grip. The parallel support is found at 1.1175; below this 1.1145 is another minor support. The strong bullish support base is found at 1.1050. Until the pair closes above 1.1030, bullish view remains in play. The near term will be capped, in case the price closes below 1.1050. The lower low formation will be launched in case the event takes place. The daily chart indicates the weekly trading pattern framed between 1.1300 and 1.1050. Further bullish will re-ignite in case the price closes above 1.1300. The real panic will be triggered below 1.1030 towards 1.0890. In case the price closes above 1.1300, it can skyrocket towards 1.1397 and 1.1475, whereas 1.1392 is median resistance. Negative divergence has been developing in the daily chart.

Intraday view: In the hourly and four-hour chart, the price was closed and trading below the hourly moving averages 34hrsma. In the H1 chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.1225, until the price remains below 34hrsma, bearish view is likely to move towards 1.1150, 1.1110, and 1.1100. We expect 1.1050 and 1.1030 as well in a day or two. Bulls are strengthening looms above 1.1230 with minor upside possibility at 1.1250, 1.1275, and 1.1300. The real strength is seen only above 1.1300 towards 1.350, a previous high of 1.1392 and 1.1475.

Trade: Selling below 1.1175 buying above 1.1230

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