04.07.201212:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 4 - 2012

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
Support    Resistance
1: 98.52    1: 100.89
2: 98.30    2: 101.14
3: 97.84    3: 101.54

Technical Overview:
The sideways price-action continues, which means energy is building for a powerful move once this consolidation is over.
The preferred count is still the same. Wave 4 most likely will end at 101.62 and wave 5, which has its ideal target at 94.58, should be developing. As can be seen from the chart above, we should be in the early part of wave iii of 5 down. Normally the third wave is the most dynamic and powerful and we should expect a decline to at least 96.72 and more likely 95.62 before minor wave iv begins and sets the stage for the final decline towards the ideal target near 94.58.
In short term I am looking for a break below 99.61 as first good indication that minor wave iii is under way.
The risk to the above scenario is a break above 101.39 that will identify that wave 4 is not over yet a delay the final decline to below 95.57 (the bottom of wave 3)

Trading Recommendations:
Sell EUR against JPY upon a break below 99.61 with a Stop at 100.80 and Take Profit at 95.80