21.03.201716:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Plan for EUR/USD and Gold for March 21, 2017

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has beaten our expectations to form a high, by a few pips today and has made intraday highs at 1.0812 levels right now. The structure still indicates that the pair could be looking to test 1.0829 levels before finding resistance again. Please note that bearish structure does not change till the time prices remain below the swing highs at 1.0830 levels as depicted on the 4H chart view here. Also note that the ending diagonal structure labelled i through v of wave C might be just extending a bit and re-testing the resistance channel line seen here. High probability still remains for a bearish reversal here till prices stay below 1.0830 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.0700 levels, while resistance is at 1.0830 levels respectively. A break below 1.0700 and subsequently 1.0600 levels would confirm that EUR/USD has carved out a lower high and wave 2. Wave 3 should then proceed lower in a swift manner.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now, with stop at 1.0850 levels, targeting 1.0700 and 1.0600 short term.

Gold chart setups:

Technical outlook:

Believe it or not, Gold structure presented here on the 4H time frame reveals a classic case of fibonacci convergence which is highlighted here at $1,237/38 levels. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of primary wave A (drop from $1,264 through $1,195 levels) is converging with fibonacci 161.8 extension of the counter trend wave a. A bearish reversal here is a high probability and should push prices lower, below $1,195 levels easily. At this moment, the metal is seen to be trading higher around $1,241 levels, slightly above convergence levels, but a bearish reversal should be watched here. The wave structure indicates that the rally from $1,195 levels has unfolded into 3 waves till now, which is corrective in nature. Hence a 5-wave drop should be expected from here which should ideally push prices below $1,195 to complete the corrective drop that began from $1,264 levels earlier. Immediate resistance is at $1,265 while support is seen at $1,195 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain short now, stop above $1,250 and target $1,180.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for Fed's George speech at 12:00 PM EST followed by Mester's speech at 06:00 PM EST today. Their remarks should make a serious impact on USD pairs.

Good luck!