10.04.201709:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 10/04/2017

Global macro overview for 10/04/2017:

The wages data saved the US Dollar after a slow change in NFP employment. According to the latest US nonfarm payrolls, only 98k jobs were added to the US non-farm sector in March. The consensus was at 180k, but the expectations were slightly higher than the ADP average (+260k in the private sector). In February, 219k new jobs were created and the average value in 12 months was less than 200k. The Fed's target was 0.2% growth in wages on the monthly basis and it was revised from 0.2 to 0.3% for February, so this data met the market consensus. The annual growth rate of the index receded from a cyclical maximum to 2.7%. The unemployment rate was logged at 4.5%, so it confirms full employment. The weakness of NFP data will be justified by snowstorm Stella and the effect of a warm February. In conclusion, the US Dollar sell-off was saved by better-than-expected wages and lower-than-expected unemployment rate.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture in the H4 time frame. The bulls almost managed to fill the gap between the levels of 101.43 - 100.88, but the growing bearish divergence and the overbought market conditions indicate a corrective cycle to come. The next support is seen at the level of 101.01 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 101.43. Please notice, that the price is trading just below the important golden trend line resistance around the level of 101.50. Any violation of this trend line would indicate an uptrend resumption and a possible test of the swing high at the level of 103.83.