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The ceasefire between Iran, the U.S., and Israel has indeed been reached, but ironically, the parties forgot to include other countries involved in the conflict in this agreement. On April 8, Israel launched hundreds of rockets toward Lebanon, justifiably believing that the ceasefire pertained only to Iran. Iran, being an ally of Lebanon, considered Israel's attack a violation of any agreements. Tehran immediately struck back against Bahrain and Kuwait and also blockaded the Strait of Hormuz again. According to various reports, passage through Hormuz is slowly resuming, but full and safe navigation is still not guaranteed. Some companies are reportedly willing to pay $2 million to pass through the Strait, while some vessels are friendly to Iran, and some tankers are leaving the Persian Gulf carrying Iranian oil.
What's next? The next step is new negotiations, and any final agreement should involve all participants in the conflict to make it clear who is at fault in the event of a breakdown of the deal. Otherwise, there is no other option. The first 24 hours after the U.S.-Iran agreements showed that the problems remain the same. Too many states are involved in the war, and too many have suffered from it for it to simply end at Washington's command. Ultimately, what did Tehran and Washington agree upon? A cessation of hostilities with each other, with the involvement of Israel. How about the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Lebanon, Kuwait, and other regional countries? They have not negotiated anything with anyone.
In fact, this is why Trump's peace deal appears rather strange. It seems the U.S. president intends to pull America out of the Middle Eastern equation and out of NATO. Trump's military intervention in the Middle East has proven the obvious: the U.S. has no allies in Europe. No European country is willing to go to war just because Trump decided so. Especially considering that early this year, Trump seriously contemplated the military takeover of Greenland and, in 2025, imposed trade sanctions on Europe. What partnership can be discussed? Trump does not want to "end the war in the Middle East," but rather "end it for the U.S." He wants to unblock the Strait of Hormuz to reduce inflationary pressure on the economy and dissatisfaction among American voters ahead of the congressional elections.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend, while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a sustainable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin to form from the current positions.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave downward structure on the charts with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new crash in the instrument soon, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to levels of 1.3429 and 1.3512, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci. However, geopolitics is already deteriorating, and the three-wave correction for EUR/USD appears complete. Therefore, unless the situation clarifies soon, both instruments may begin forming a new downward wave set.
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