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23.10.2019: Brent can resume rally (Brent, USD/RUB)
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Oil has slipped again to the red zone despite positive sentiments in the market on Tuesday. Yesterday, the Brent gained 2% at some point. However, the ruble didn’t react to the situation in the oil market. The Russian currency is facing increasing pressure today.
OPEC countries and allies are expected to discuss a possibility of additional cuts in oil output during December meeting in Vienna. This news boosted positive sentiment among traders who started opening long positions on oil. However, by Wednesday morning, activity in the oil market had noticeably decreased. The positive background was offset by the data from the American Petroleum Institute showing that the US crude stockpiles rose last week.
Today, Brent oil is trading downwards at 59 dollars 45 cents. While the oil is below 60 dollars a barrel, traders hesitate to open long positions.
Yesterday, the ruble closed the session with losses although early in the day it was trading steadily high. The pressure on the Russian currency will most probably increase soon, as the federal loan bonds auction will be limited to 30 billion. Moreover, the Bank of Russia is expected to cut the key rate by more than 25 basis points. The dollar/ruble pair is trading today in the narrow range near the level of 63 dollars 70 cents.
Amid the ongoing weakness of the US dollar, traders anticipate that it will ease further and will cost 63 rubles by the end of the week. However, given the current economic situation in the world, the American currency will most likely stay in the range between 65 and 66 rubles.
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