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At the beginning of the trading week, the situation in the world theoretically favored bulls. We finished the last week without significant macro reports in the calendar and without the publication of significant quarterly results of US companies, so global investors waited for new impulses and they appeared.
After a Thursday's statement by Donald Trump, in which skepticism about the possibility of getting along with China prevailed, on Friday the financial media announced that China has proposed to reduce the surplus in trade with the US by 200 billion dollars a year. This suggested something quite contrary to Trump's suggestion. This information could be support for the bull camp on Friday. The problem is that the foreign minister of China denied that such an offer would be made.
Wall Street did not know in which direction the indexes should be pushed. The situation on the China-American negotiations was ambiguous, which could have been slightly worrying. However, in the debt market, there was a desire to realize some of the profits from short positions, thanks to which bond prices increased (profitability decreased). It helped the bull camp on the stock market. The indexes stained red, but kept a short distance from the neutral level.
During the weekend Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, said that the United States "suspend the trade war" because talks with China are going in the right direction, so in the morning contracts for the US indices grew strongly. If this trend will sustain until tomorrow, then it can help to raise the other markets as well.
Le'ts now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is hovering around the level of 271.47 in overbought conditions. The golden trend line had been violated and tested, but the no follow through occurred. If the US-China trade war suspension will prevail, there is a chance for another optimistic rally towards the level of 274.15. If this level is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 278.85. The immediate support is seen at the level of 269.90.
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