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The US currency reacted negatively to another Fed funds rate increase following the FOMC meeting. USD slumped significantly, losing many of its earlier gains. However, market players and analysts believe that the US dollar is strong enough to recoup its losses.
USD decreased late on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate by 75 basis points. Fed policymakers stated that future rate hikes, which are aimed at decreasing galloping inflation, could be smaller than the previous ones.
Analysts noted that the market regarded this statement as quite dovish. Investors assumed that the regulator will slow down the pace of rate hikes in the current situation. Many analysts believe that the Fed would increase the rate by only 50 bps in December.
While some market players expected the Fed to slow down monetary tightening significantly, these expectations were dispelled by Fed chairman Jerome Powell. At the press conference following the meeting he said that the Federal Reserve does not plan to slow down the pace of rate hikes. "It is very premature to be thinking about pausing," Powell added. The Fed chairman said the regulator will present a new summary of interest rate trajectory projections.
Furthermore, Powell pointed out the steady rise of the US dollar and called it "a challenge" for many countries. Expectations of an excessively high rate hike strongly pressured USD. Early on Thursday, November 3, EUR/USD traded near 0.9825. Earlier, the pair rose to 0.9832, but retreated slightly afterwards.
Market players hoped the Fed would slow down interest rate hikes this year and ultimately end the tightening cycle in the first quarter of 2023. However, the Fed's actions did not match their expectations. A 50 bps rate increase in December is the only likely policy adjustment the regulator can do.
Rising employment in the US became a key indicator signalling that the Fed would not soften their stance. According to the latest data by ADP, the US economy added 239,000 new jobs in October, well above 192,000 new jobs reported in September. The Federal Reserve uses such data to determine the level of inflation and interest rate adjustments. Strong US labor market data gives the Fed more room for maneuver, allowing the regulator to tighten its monetary policy more aggressively to fight soaring inflation.
Amid such developments, experts note that the US dollar rally can potentially continue in 2023, fuelled by concerns over a global recession and the hawkish Fed. FX strategists at Capital Economics believe that the Fed's tightening cycle is close to an end. The research firm's chief economist Jonas Goltermann predicts that the US dollar will continue to climb in the first half of 2023.
Goltermann believes that if interest rates reach their peak, it will not be an obstacle for a USD rally in the future. The economist said falling risk appetite in the global markets and rising demand for safe haven assets have given support to the US dollar. According to Goltermann, the US currency went up during earlier tightening cycles.
Earlier outlooks by some analysts saw the Fed increase interest rates up to 5% in 2023. Bloomberg predicts that the effective Fed funds rate could hit a peak of 5.1% by May 2023. Market players expect the key interest rate to decrease afterwards in the first or second quarters of the year.
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