27.01.202608:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin Declines "Due to Shutdown Threat"

Bitcoin continues its decline, pulling the entire market down with it. We expect further falls in both the short and long term, unlike many experts who continuously forecast growth. However, we see no fundamental or technical basis for such growth at this time. Of course, if major players, market makers, and institutional investors start buying Bitcoin again, its price will rise. But in that case, technical signs of a new "bullish" trend would begin to appear on the charts. Currently, there are none.

Meanwhile, some crypto experts have concluded that the recent drop in Bitcoin is due to the impending US government "shutdown," which may begin on February 1. Recall that the last "shutdown" in October-November of last year was record-breaking in duration, and Democrats and Republicans only agreed to extend funding until February 1. February 1 is just around the corner. Returning to the topic at hand, the latest drop in Bitcoin is associated with the threat of a "shutdown," while others previously noted that Bitcoin was "suffering" from Trump's trade war. Neither explanation can be considered true.

Look at Bitcoin's movements in late September 2025 when the threat of a "shutdown" also loomed over the US. On October 6, Bitcoin set a new all-time high (ATH). This means that neither fears of a "shutdown" nor the official start of one halted Bitcoin's growth. Why is Bitcoin falling now due to the threat of a new halt in government operations and across all governmental institutions, which happens with frightening regularity under Trump?

The same applies to the trade war. Tariffs were imposed or increased in various degrees throughout 2025. Yet even over the course of a year, Bitcoin showed both growth and decline. We continue to assert that the current decline of the world's first cryptocurrency is simply a downward trend following the completion of an upward one. All "bullish" factors have been priced in by the market, leading to a period of profit-taking and a shift to other, more stable and profitable assets. Recall that gold and silver consistently set new value records.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We expect a decline to $70,800 (the 50.0% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend) in the near future. New areas of POI for sales on the daily timeframe include the "bearish" IFVG located in the range of $92,500 – $95,000. The price may return to this pattern and then initiate a further decline. On the 4-hour timeframe, bearish FVGs are forming, from which additional short positions can be opened or used as confirmation of further declines.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, a downward trend continues to form. The key selling pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. The movement triggered by this signal should be strong and prolonged. A correction in the crypto market may conclude soon. On the daily timeframe for Ethereum, there is a bearish IFVG. Traders can consider this pattern for opening new short positions. The targets for the decline—$2,717 and $2,618—remain relevant. And these are just the closest targets. The potential for Ethereum to fall in the medium term is at least $2,400.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• CHOCH – break in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Loss orders of traders that market makers use to fill their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price quickly passes through such areas, indicating a complete lack of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but pierces through it impulsively and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to capture liquidity and form their own position in the opposite direction.