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The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.15 per USD in April, nearing its highest level of 2024 and markedly outperforming other emerging market currencies. The move was supported by higher commodity prices and expectations that Brazil’s central bank will maintain a hawkish stance.
A renewed flare-up in tensions between the United States and Iran, with both sides exchanging threats, prompted a broader pullback from riskier assets in global markets. However, the associated concerns over tighter supplies of key commodities pushed up prices for several of Brazil’s main exports, boosting dollar inflows into the country’s financial markets. Crude oil prices climbed sharply, which in turn raised production costs and prices for sugar, ethanol, and soybeans. Benchmark iron ore prices also advanced.
At the same time, mounting inflationary pressures led the Central Bank of Brazil to signal that it may halt its interest-rate cutting cycle if it detects signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. This comes as Brazil is already contending with some of the highest real interest rates in the world.
