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01.07.201512:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CHF trading in supply area

Long-term review

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On May14, USD/CHF formed a double bottom near 0.91. A correctional move up resulted in the breakout of the ascending channel and further extentions up towards 23.6% (R3) Fibonacci level applied to the channel breakout point. While R3 was rejected, USD/CHF broke the key support level that is 61.8% Fibonacci – S1 (0.9302).

The bounce off the R3 resistance, break below the S1 support as well as CCI trendline breakout can be treated as the confirmation of a valid downtrend. Currently, the pair is trading between R1 (0.9370) and R2 (0.9439), which is a strong supply area.

Consider selling USD/CHF while it is between R1 and R2. If the the downtrend is in the long term, it is better to target the nearest support area S2 (0.9239). Only a daily closure above R2 (0.9439) could send the price higher to test R3 (0.9524). Even if R3 is tested, keep in mind that the long-term trend would still remain bearish.

Support: 0.9302, 0.9239

Resistance: 0.9370, 0.9438, 0.9524

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