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Markets are stable in anticipation of the publication of the US employment report. The shares of the Asia-Pacific countries slightly increased after the US stock indices, the base yield remains within narrow ranges, emphasizing the lack of serious drivers, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen. Commodity currencies lag behind, despite the rise in commodity prices and a positive background suggesting a reduction in risks.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is growing for consecutive months. It reached the level of 127.3 in June and is at its highest level since March 2020, that is, it has actually returned to the dock level. Consumers' optimism is based on the confidence that business conditions and their own financial prospects will improve in the coming months.
This optimism is also supported by EU data – consumer and business confidence in the European Commission has reached its highest in 21 years. These data are consistent with the high pace of economic recovery.
USD/CAD
The empty economic calendar of Canada does not make it possible to form an internal driver for the Canadian dollar, which follows the dynamics of commodity currencies this week and relies more on US statistics and commodity prices.
It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that despite the sharp increase in demand for the US dollar after the conditionally hawkish FOMC meeting, the long position of CAD on the futures market underwent a slight adjustment. During the reporting week, it fell by only 120 million to 3.513 billion, which means that the predominance of bulls for the Canadian dollar remains significant. The estimated price has gone above the long-term level, but this growth is primarily due to short-term factors.
In this case, the current growth of the USD/CAD pair is fundamentally justified, since it is based on the recalculation of the forecast for the yield spread, but its long-term nature is questionable. And while the growth is is most likely corrective, the target is the resistance zone of 1.2630/50, and only a confident breakdown of this zone will allow us to assume that a bullish reversal has taken place.
USD/JPY
Over the reporting week, the Japanese yen's net short position increase again and reached -6.085 billion, which is quite a lot, but it is worth noting that the target price is not rising. This is due to the fact that the dollar has been losing its advantage over the yen in profitability in recent weeks since UST yields declined with an increase in inflation, which led to a decrease in real yields. Meanwhile, the yen, as usual, is under deflationary pressure, and the yield is slightly stable and supported by the Bank of Japan. As a result, financial flows do not turn in favor of the US dollar because investors do not see an increase in the yield spread.
This week's calendar for the yen is quite busy, but it is still unknown whether a new driver will emerge. The industrial production data released this morning deviated slightly from forecasts. On Thursday, the T indices will be published. There is an optimistic forecast here, as overall improvement in business sentiment is predicted.
In Japan, there are growing fears about a new mutation of the covid "delta", which is presumed to be more contagious. In connection with this, there may be delays in lifting quarantine restrictions. Thus, this may lead to a deterioration in economic indicators and an increase in demand for the yen as a protective asset.
As expected, the yen tested the local high of 111, but there are no reasons for a confident continuation of growth. The estimated price is close to the long-term average, the momentum is still bullish, so the movement to the next target of 112.20/40 looks reasonable. However, the strength of the momentum is questionable – there are very few signs that the yen should continue strengthening. Most likely, the formation of a local high, trading in a sideways range, and further dynamics will depend on Nonfarm data until Friday.
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