14.08.201818:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 14/08/2018

Speeches of the Turkish president are in the last days at high risk for the TRY course. It was no different today. Speaking today in the early afternoon in Ankara, the leader was broadly referring to economic issues. The tone in which Erdogan speaks is still warlike: "We can do two things, one in the economy, the other in politics. We have already taken actions that the economy needs. We must now maintain our political position" he said.

The President of Turkey still considers the US to be the main ringleader of the lira's turmoil. In his earlier speeches, Erdogan accused Washington of plotting and terminating the economic war. Now he presented the Turkish answer: "We will boycott American electronic products. Have iPhones? There are Samsung and others. We have our brand Venus Vestel. We will take the appropriate steps" said Erdogan, announcing at the same time that his country "must become more self-sufficient". The shares mentioned by President Vestel Venus, which produces smartphones with the Android system (probably based on components from the Far East, as many similar companies do), immediately increased by more than 5.0%.

Nevertheless, with the weakening of the currency, it is expected that the prices of imported goods will increase significantly, which will additionally conquer and so high inflation reaching 15%. The Turkish leader once again called on his fellow citizens to keep savings in the lira. Abandoning his own currency for the dollar or the euro, Erdogan even compared to betrayal: " If we leave our currency in favor of others, then we will lose. You are Turks, you should use Turkish money" he said.

Turkey imports US goods worth about $ 12 billion annually. However, exports from Turkey to the US amount to USD 9.4 billion. The United States is thus Turkey's fourth largest trading partner after China, Germany, and Russia.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The harsh tone of the Turkish president interrupted the lira in continuing the strengthening that began in the morning. Early in the morning, the dollar cost more than 6.90 just after ten o clock the rate fell to 6.45, then during Erdogan's speech it would rise to 6.60, and then go down again to 6.40. This is the current technical support for the price. In a case of a further drop, the next support is seen at the level of 5.43.