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The foreign exchange market has been a little quieter in anticipation of the Fed's evening decision. On the Asian stock market we have more volatility with returning to trade after the holiday break. Oil is under slight pressure following the negative overtone of API.
USD and other currencies keep narrow ranges of fluctuations because the market is waiting for guidance from the Fed. The EUR / USD hovers around 1.1760, USD / JPY tries to get over 113. GBP / USD tried to approach 1.32 after the assurances of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Britain May that it excludes expedited elections, but the impulse has quickly faded. The information noise concerns NAFTA negotiations and CAD. US trade secretary Lighthizer said that little progress has been made in recent days, as Canada does not offer concessions on key issues. USD / CAD stopped at 1.2950.
On the equity market, the indices in China are focused on continuing the recovery in the calm of the subject of trade wars. Shanghai Composite is growing 1.6% today. In Japan, Nikkei225 gains 0.3%.
EUR/USD analysis for 26/09/2018:
On Wednesday, the 26th of September 2018, the main event of the day is the FOMC Rate Decision and Rate Statement release. This decision will directly affect the EUR/USD rate as the market participants expect a hike from 2.00% to 2.25%. It would be quite a surprise if the Federal Open Market Committee did not raise interest rates on Wednesday. The US economy remains strong, and recent comments from the central bank indicate readiness for further hikes. Investors' attention will focus on the future path of monetary policy - if the Fed tries to build expectations for a longer cycle of tightening, it will be an important positive signal for the dollar.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still moving inside of the channel, so the general bias is bullish. The nearest technical resistance levels are seen at 1.1790, 1.1803 and 1.1813. The nearest technical supports are seen at 1.1752 and 1.1746. Moreover, any breakout below the level of 1.1720 would mean a channel breakout as well and the bias might turn into bearish. In that case, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1655.
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