13.02.201808:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Optimism is increasing

EUR/USD, GBP/USD

The first day of the week in the markets went quietly. Stock indexes began to recover and alongside the appetite for risk diverged across other sectors. The American S&P 500 increased by 1.39%, the British FTSE 100 by 1.19%, the European Euro Stoxx 50 with 1.50%. The euro added 40 points, the British pound gained 13 points. British investors have pondered over the disposition of the chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane, who announced an intensely slow rate hike in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he turned the focus of attention from net inflation to the level of the subsistence level, which causes genuine concern to the Central Bank. The report on the US budget for January showed a surplus of $49.2 billion, which almost corresponds to the forecast of 50.2 billion dollars.

Today, in Great Britain, a large block of inflation data in the January assessment will be released. The base CPI is expected to grow from 2.5% y/y to 2.6% y/y, the total CPI may show a decrease from 3.0% y/y to 2.9% y/y (-0.6% m/m). The PPI input is projected to grow by 0.7% m/m, the output figure (PPI Output) is expected at 0.2%. The retail price index is predicted to remain unchanged at 4.1% y/y. The residential property price index may fall from 5.1% y/y to 4.9% y/y. In general, inflation indicators (according to expectations) appear positive. The published index of optimism in small business in the US for January is expected to increase to 106.2 from 104.9. Interest in risk can pick up slow overclocking.

Tomorrow, retail sales in the US are expected to increase by 0.5% in January.

We are waiting for the euro at 1.2365, pound sterling in the range of 1.3980-1.4000.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, it was a national holiday in Japan, the yen with a common neutral position of the US dollar was traded around the level of 108.70. Optimistic data on loans came out in China. The volume of loans issued in January amounted to 2.90 billion yuan against expectations of 2.00 billion - a historic record. The growth of bank lending increased from 12.7% y/y to 13.2% y/y, against expectations of a slowdown to 12.5% y/y. Perhaps the surge in lending is related to the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, which begins on February 15 and lasts a week. Last year, the lending growth in January was 95.2%, from 1.04 billion yuan to 2.03 billion in December.

On the stock markets of the APR today, general optimism in connection with yesterday's growth of US indices by 0.9% -1.7%. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is 0.93%, the Chinese China A50 is 2.68%. The price index for corporate goods in Japan added 0.3% in January against the forecast of 0.2%, but on an annual basis, the indicator fell from 3.1% to 2.7% y/y.

Another positive news for the Japanese currency was the news of preliminary consent of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to appoint Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the Central Bank for a second term. Previously, we doubted this reassignment, but apparently the Japanese government simply did not find a way out of the so-far-gone situation with "economic reforms".

We are looking forward to the pair's growth to 109.30 and further to the range of 109.75/90.