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EUR/USD is trading in the red at 1.2153 erasing the early morning's gains. USDX's rally pushed the pair down in the short term. Fundamentally, the greenback could appreciate versus its rivals due to better than expected US manufacturing and services data.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI increased from 57.1 to 59.1 points beating 56.6 expected, while the Flash Services PMI jumped to 57.5 from 54.8, even if the specialists have expected a drop to 53.3 points.
USD could edge higher ahead of FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged in the first meeting of this year.
EUR/USD has printed a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart. A new bearish candle could confirm this pattern and could signal a deeper drop in the short term. Last week I've told that the pair will be expected to come back down to reach the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml) after failing to hit it in the last attempts.
The price was rejected by the 23.6% level, so dropping and stabilizing below the Pivot Point (1.2137) and under the median line (ML) of the minor descending pitchfork will probably attract more sellers.
Technically, a larger drop, correction, will be activated and confirmed by a drop below the 38.2% retracement level, by a new lower low.
Selling will be possible again from below the 1.2053 former low. A bearish closure under this level signals a further drop towards the 1.19 level. The bearish pressure remains high as long as the price stays under the 1.22 psychological level.
Technically, a larger corrective phase could be invalidated only an upside breakout above the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork. EUR/USD is traded far below this upside obstacle and that's why a downside movement is favored right now.
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