15.06.201811:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Review of GBP/USD as of June 15, 2018

The growth rate of retail sales in the UK accelerated from 1.4% to 3.9% with a forecast of 2.4%. But the pound was still losing its positions quickly, for which it had to say a special thanks to Mario Draghi, who provoked a panic collapse of the single European currency, and it already dragged the pound along with the dollar index. The main issue that everyone asked the ECB's board before the meeting was the fate of the quantitative easing program. Many feared that it could be extended, but almost everyone was sure that no concrete steps would follow after yesterday's meeting, as, according to preliminary data, inflation in Europe began to grow rapidly. However, the decision of the ECB was a complete surprise, and most importantly - confirmed all the fears: as planned earlier, until September, the quantitative easing program will be 30 billion euros a month. but after September, instead of its curtailment, it will operate until December, however, in the amount of 15 billion euros a month. So, yes, the ECB has extended the program of quantitative easing. Given the fact that this is not the first extension of the quantitative easing program, no one can guarantee that it will not be renewed.

In fairness, it should be noted that even without the decision of the ECB to extend the quantitative easing program, the dollar had grounds for growth. The fact is that the growth rates of retail sales did not slow from 4.8% to 4.4%, but accelerated to 5.9%. Also, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 53 thousand.

Today in the UK did not publish any macroeconomic data, but in the US there are data scheduled to be released, and they will be more likely to be negative. The fact is that industrial production is projected to slow down from 3.5% to 2.7% with an increase in capacity utilization from 78.0% to 78.1%. This indicates that the American industry is not in a good state, since it indicates that the depreciation of fixed assets in the United States is high. Moreover, after such a significant drop in the pound, any bad news from the US will be perceived as an excuse for a rebound.

The pound has a good chance to grow to 1.3300.