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On Friday, the dollar led to macroeconomic data. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the preliminary assessment for July fell from 98.2 to 97.1 (the forecast was 98.1), consumer expectations fell from 89.1 to 86.4. The component of inflation expectations in the consumer confidence index fell from 3.0% to 2.9%. Import prices for June decreased by 0.4% against expectations of growth of 0.1%, export prices increased by 0.3%.
In Germany, the wholesale price index in June rose by 0.5% against expectations of 0.4%. Also, investors closed positions before the new important week.
On the daily chart, the price touched the Kruzenshtern trend line (blue). The signal line of the oscillator Marlin continued to decrease.
On a four-hour chart, the price was also delayed by the resistance of the Kruzenshtern line. Given the expectations of positive data for the US, we are waiting for the price to turn down. Retail sales in the US for June are expected to grow by 0.4% after the May growth of 0.8%, which indicates a very strong inertia of consumer activity. Base sales are expected to grow by 0.4% after the previous 0.9%.
In the afternoon, the trade balance of the eurozone for May will come out - a forecast of 17.6 billion euros against 18.1 billion in April.
We are waiting for the euro at 1.1590. Tomorrow, according to the released data on industrial production in the US, an increase of 0.5% is expected. The prospect of further reducing the euro in the range 1.1475-1.1508 remains.
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