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14.08.201816:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Renewing the growth of the euro-zone economy will positively affect the plans of the ECB

Long-term review
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Data released on the economy of the euro area in the second half of the day failed to inspire traders and investors who are counting on a further corrective recovery of risky assets.

Despite the fact that the euro area economy continued its growth in the second quarter of this year and the data were better than economists' forecasts due to good growth performance of Germany's flagship economy, a weak report on industrial production frightened off new potential investors.

According to the statistics agency, the eurozone's GDP in the 2nd quarter of this year grew by 0.4% compared to the first quarter of this year, which was the most recent failure.

However, it should be noted that the return of growth rates will have a positive impact on the plans of the European Central Bank for the complete curtailment of the asset buy-back program in December this year, and may also bring the interest rate hike since the 2008 crisis. Currently, it is expected that the European regulator will start raising rates only in the summer of 2019.

Compared to the same period in 2017, the euro area economy grew by 2.2%.

As I noted above, data on industrial production leveled the above report on the rate of economic growth.

According to the data, the industrial production of the eurozone in June 2018 decreased by 0.7% compared to May, compared to the same period in 2017, the growth was 2.5%. Economists had expected industrial production to fall by only 0.4% and growth by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2017.

Exchange Rates 14.08.2018 analysis

Data for May were also revised. So, the industrial production of the eurozone in May showed an increase of 1.4%.

In the second half of the day came data on import prices in the US, which were ignored by the market.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, prices for imported goods in the US in July 2018 remained unchanged, as high prices for imported fuel were offset by low prices for other imported goods. Economists predicted that prices will drop by 0.1%.

Excluding fuel, import prices in July fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, buyers still have big problems with growth. The longer the trade will be conducted below the resistance level 1.1430, the stronger the pressure on the euro will grow and the deeper will be the new wave of falling risky assets. In the EUR / USD pair, the weekly targets of sellers are lows of 1.1320 and 1.1250.

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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