21.11.201800:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. 20 November. Results of the day. New problem for the euro - possible EU sanctions for Italy

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78 p-85 p-91 p-98 p-71 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (94 p).

On the second trading day of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair finally completed the upward movement or at least started to adjust. "Finally", because there were no significant fundamental reasons for strengthening the European currency. Moreover, tomorrow the verdict of the European Commission regarding Italy's failure to comply with EU rules on the budget will be known. And, most likely, Italy is waiting for any sanctions and measures. This is unlikely to support the European currency, and most likely, traders began to get rid of the euro in advance. No important macroeconomic report has been published in Europe and the United States to date. Thus, two main topics remain for the euro: Brexit and the Italian budget. Both not in favor of the euro. Of course, we can assume that the British Parliament will still adopt Theresa May's plan, and most likely it will. But while there is no reliable and official information on this issue, there is a possibility of a complete failure of the entire procedure, the resignation of Theresa May, a new referendum and new parliamentary elections. The goal for the pair at the moment is the Kijun-sen line, a rebound from it can provoke the resumption of an uptrend, but most likely, will provoke only a small rollback. But overcoming the critical line with almost 100% probability will return the pair to the downtrend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair began a downward correction. The price rebound from the critical line or the MACD indicator reversal upward will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with the target of 1.1486, but it should be remembered that the fundamental background remains not in favor of the euro.

Short positions will become relevant after traders overcome the critical line. In this case the pair will return to the downtrend with the first target of 1.1281.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.