04.02.201908:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 4, 2019

EUR/USD

Last Friday, the US data came out good, but investors are increasingly pondering over data on new places in the non-agricultural sector: 304 thousand jobs were created in January compared to the forecast of 165 thousand, but the December figure was revised lower, as it decreased from 312 thousand to 222 thousand, the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.0%, but at the expense of increasing the share of the economically active population from 63.1% to 63.2%. We think the data is good. The underemployment rate, a broader measure of labor market slack, rose from 7.6% to 8.1%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector increased from 54.1 to 56.6 in January, construction costs in November increased by 0.8%.

The data show a more favorable economic situation in the United States compared to Europe, as the head of the German Central Bank, Weidman, complained about last week. Investors can only worry about the Federal Reserve's now clearly marked course on slowing the pace of the rate hike. Under favorable circumstances, the rate may be raised not earlier than June, as expressed by Kaplan and Bullard.

Today, the volume of factory orders in the US in November is expected to increase by 0.3%, tomorrow for retail sales in the euro area in December, we can see a reduction of 1.5%.

As a result, we expect a decline in the euro towards the support of the Krusenstern line on the daily and four-hour charts in the range of 1.1403/15, after overcoming which a further decline to the previously indicated target of 1.1302.