13.03.201902:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: a change in trend is coming, or why euro bears could fail

Last week, the single European currency against the US dollar sank to its lowest level for the first time since 2017.

From a technical point of view, the situation in the EUR/USD pair is far from unambiguous. On the one hand, quotes broke through the levels that kept the single European currency from falling throughout the past year, on the other - the euro is once again making active attempts to recover.

According to a number of experts, despite expectations of a further weakening of the euro, quotes may well go up.

This is evidenced by the fact that the number of short speculative positions on the euro has reached a peak since 2016.

"Excessive number of shorts" means that we are approaching a turning point. However, a trend reversal will likely require stronger evidence of the economic recovery in the eurozone," said currency strategists at Credit Agricole.

Another point is that most of the negativity has already been laid in prices, which casts doubt on the ability of the bears on the euro to continue a downward campaign against the background of softening the rhetoric of the European Central Bank (ECB).

It is assumed that the incentive measures taken by the regulator will help stabilize the region's economy and neutralize the negative impact of external factors on it.

According to a consensus forecast of economists who were recently polled by Bloomberg, by the end of the year, the single European currency could rise in price against the dollar to $1.18.

According to analysts, a necessary condition for the recovery of a long-term bullish trend in EUR/USD is the ability of buyers to keep quotes above the level of 1.125 and push them to the middle of the medium-term trading range of 1.12-1.15.