23.05.201907:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 23, 2019

EUR/USD

The publication of the FOMC Fed minutes on Wednesday evening did not affect the general mood of investors. The committee considers the current rates to be balanced; in the long run, even a reduction in the base rate is possible.

In the current political situation, we believe that even if the Fed lowers the rate in the coming months, it will not greatly affect the euro and other counterdollar currencies. The situation will work out "exactly the opposite", as it was with the cycle of rate increases from 0.25% to the current 2.50%, that is, the global range. In fact, the market began to lay in the price differences in rates only since September last year. The dollar, with its 2.50% against the euro with 0.00%, has a very large margin of safety that can be realized at the right time with proper media support.

But while the foreign policy situation itself is working on the dollar. The danger of Britain withdrawing from the EU without a deal has become real, as well as a veiled US-European trade war. This is all against the backdrop of a slowing global economy. Investors have one choice left, the least risky thing is to buy the US currency.

The euro has overcome the support of the Fibonacci level 110.0% (1.1155), the goal 1.1075 opens - the Fibonacci level 123.6%.