11.07.201910:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Reduced inflation in the United States will increase the pressure on the dollar (there is a high probability that the USDJPY pair will continue to fall and EURUSD pair will grow)

On Tuesday, in his speech in Boston, J. Powell did not say a word about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy, which contributed to the continued growth of the US dollar and the decrease in demand for risky assets. But on Wednesday, in his speech at the local parliament, he actually repeated his words, which were voiced earlier and indicated a high likelihood of lowering interest rates by the regulator. It seems that the markets got what they really wanted- a hint of lower interest rates.

In the wake of the statement by the head of the Central Bank, the dollar fell sharply against major currencies, and the stock market received another sip of optimism with hopes that on July 31, the expected reduction in the key interest rate by 0.25% would not be just a one-time action.

An important role in assessing these prospects will be played by the publication of data on consumer inflation in America today. According to the presented forecast, it is expected that the consumer price index in annual terms will drop from 1.8% to 1.6%, while monthly inflation in June will be at a zero mark against the May increase of 0.1%. At the same time, it is expected that core consumer inflation in June will add 0.2% against the growth, a month earlier by 0.1%. In annual terms, it will maintain a growth rate of 2.0%.

By the way, let us draw your attention to the fact that, in his speech, the Fed Chairman, referring to factors that force the bank to actively act to support the economy, if necessary, pointed to a likely decrease in inflationary pressure, which, under the prevailing concept of monetarism, is a signal to lower interest rates. Given this, it can be assumed that if the inflation data does not show growth or even show some slowdown. This will be perceived by markets as another important reason for expecting a more active reduction in the cost of borrowing by the Fed.

This scenario will lead to the continuation of sales of the US dollar and investors buying stocks of companies and commodity market assets.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD pair is trading below 1.1280 in anticipation of the publication of data on inflation in the US and the minutes of the ECB June meeting. In our opinion, even if the protocol shows the desire of the ECB to further ease monetary policy, this will not be in the news. However, a decrease in inflationary pressure in the United States will undoubtedly continue to push the pair up to 1.1340 after overcoming the level of 1.1280.

The USDJPY pair is trading below 108.15. If data on inflation in the United States show its decline, the pair will continue to fall to 107.20.