12.07.201906:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro entered the accumulation range on July 2-4, but with the release of good economic data on the United States quickly, it quickly returned back.The number of applications for unemployment benefits last week was 209 thousand against the forecast of 220 thousand, which confirms the stability of the labor market, the CPI for June grew by 0.1% against the forecast of 0.0%, the base CPI added 0.3% against expectations 0 2%. The US budget deficit in June amounted to $-8.5 billion; previously, the June figure was better only in 2016.

On the daily chart, the price is held by the balance line. For the development of a downward price trend, it is necessary to overcome the support of the MACD line - below 1.1240. The subsequent overcoming of the July 9 low (1.1193) offers the euro a medium-term downside prospect (1.0985 - Fibonacci reaction rate 138.2%).

On the four-hour chart, the price "winds up" on the MACD line, the price did not consolidate in the accumulation zone of 1.1274-1.1313, which may be a sign of a reversal of the trend. The Marlin oscillator currently indicates a small upside potential, but generally decreases in the growth zone. On the basis of signs of indicators, the euro may not turn today but on Monday instead. So, we keep our main scenario for a price reversal downwards with the nearest target of 1.1155.