01.08.201906:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2019

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EUR/USD

In accordance with its intentions and market expectations, the Fed lowered its rate by a quarter point yesterday. As we expected, the dollar continued to strengthen, and in all markets, including commodity. This is a sign of further strengthening of the dollar. The decline in the euro began immediately with the opening of the US session. The good mood of traders was supported by data on new jobs in the private sector from ADP for July, which showed an increase to 156 thousand from 112 thousand in June, revised to increase from 102 thousand. In total, the euro lost 80 points.

On the daily chart, the price turned around 110.0% from the Fibonacci level, noted a target level of 123.6% (1.1073) and today went below it in the Asian session. Now the closest target is the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at a price of 1.0985, and 1.1073 becomes resistance for a possible correction.

On the four-hour chart, the price turned down from the MACD line (indicator blue line), reinforced by the resistance of the balance line (red indicator). The Marlin oscillator signal line has penetrated deep into the "bears" zone, now it has shown a reversal upwards. Correction after a strong movement is possible, but it does not seem to be deep, since ISM Manufacturing PMI is coming out in the evening with an optimistic forecast of 52.0 against 51.7 previously.

So, we are waiting for the euro to fall to the level of 1.0985.

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