18.09.201901:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trap for gold: the "black swan" shook the position of precious metal

At certain periods of time, the so-called "black swans" are activated on the raw material market. They appear suddenly and confuse all the cards to traders and investors. The yellow metal also did not escape this fate.

Let us turn to the terminology. The concept of "black swan" includes a number of major events that cannot be predicted, but they radically change the course of history. "Black Swans" are both positive and negative phenomena. They can be global or personal. Such events include wars, financial crises, an accidental meeting, winning a lottery, etc. This term came into use after the publication of the book by Nassim Taleb "Black Swan. The impact of highly improbable. "

The bankruptcy of the largest US bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008 is considered a classic example of a "black swan". The financial collapse of this institution had negative consequences not only for the United States, but for the entire global financial system. At that time, the bank's liabilities exceeded $600 billion. Panic broke out in financial markets: investors who lost insurance hastily closed their positions in emerging markets and fled to the dollar. They stopped the panic of the US financial authorities. Properly implemented strategy has allowed us to avoid further negative scenarios for the global economy.

At the moment, the "black swan" for the black gold market was an attack by Hussite rebels from Yemen at the refineries of Saudi Arabia. The attack took place on Saturday, September 14, and on Monday, the stock exchanges began to fever. At the opening of trading, November futures for North Sea Brent crude oil were trading at $67.8 per barrel, well above Friday's $60.15. The highest growth of oil quotes reached almost 20%, analysts say.

The yellow metal did not stand aside: after the collapse of value last Friday, it slightly came to its senses, but it will not be possible to maintain its previously won positions, analysts say.

At the moment, gold is trapped: rising in price and strengthening, the precious metal rested on its laurels for a sufficient time. Now it will have to go down to earth and act in straitened circumstances. Analysts are considering several scenarios for the further dynamics of gold prices, but they are mostly negative, with varying degrees of decline.

1) A positive outlook on the cost of precious metals provides for consolidation in the range of $1480 – $1560 per ounce and further growth.

2) Another relatively positive scenario suggests that the price of gold is adjusted to $1440 – $1450 per ounce.

3) According to a moderate forecast, the cost of precious metal in the fourth quarter of 2109 will be $1,427.50 per ounce.

4) Analysts do not rule out such a negative development, like the correction of the price of yellow metal to $1360 – $1370 per ounce.

On Monday, September 16, the precious metal was trading in the range from $1,511.40 to $1,510.70 per ounce, and on Tuesday fell in price to $1,504.10 per ounce. Analysts are confident that in the short term, both gold and oil will continue to fall.